A new poll from the Center for Sociological Research (CIS) indicates Aliança Catalana is projected to surpass Junts in seat counts in Catalonia.
This shift represents a significant realignment of political power within the region. If the projections hold, it would signal a decline for Junts and a rise in influence for Aliança Catalana, altering the dynamics of the local legislature.
According to the CIS data, Aliança Catalana is projected to secure between 23 and 25 seats [1]. In contrast, Junts is projected to receive between 16 and 18 seats [2]. This potential "sorpasso," or overtaking, marks a sharp departure from previous electoral results.
Joan Tardà, an analyst and presenter for Al Rojo Vivo on La Sexta, said the findings were "una crónica anunciada" — a foregone conclusion [3].
The projected decline for Junts is particularly steep when compared to previous performance. The party obtained 35 seats in the 2024 elections [4]. The current projections suggest a loss of nearly half of those seats if the trend continues.
Tardà said the current data reflects a broader movement within the Catalan political sphere. The shift suggests that voters may be migrating toward Aliança Catalana as the primary alternative to the current establishment.
The CIS projections serve as a leading indicator for upcoming electoral contests. While these numbers are estimates, they provide a framework for how parties are adjusting their strategies to combat the projected loss of influence.
“"Era una crónica anunciada"”
The projected decline of Junts from 35 seats in 2024 to a possible low of 16 seats suggests a fragmentation of the pro-independence or nationalist vote in Catalonia. The rise of Aliança Catalana indicates a shift toward a different political platform, potentially moving the region's center of gravity away from the traditional leadership of Junts.
