The India Meteorological Department (IMD) reports that the 2026 southwest monsoon is advancing more slowly than usual across large parts of India [1].
This forecast is critical for the region's agricultural sector, as the monsoon provides the primary water source for crops across the subcontinent. A deficit in rainfall often leads to reduced crop yields and higher food inflation.
Despite the general delay, the IMD confirmed rapid progress of the monsoon across Maharashtra, Karnataka, and Chennai [2]. However, this localized speed does not offset the broader trend of a sluggish advance across other regions [1]. The weather office has also issued warnings for heavy rains in East India, specifically affecting West Bengal, and Odisha [2].
Overall projections for the season remain pessimistic. The IMD said the weather office has projected an 84 percent chance of below-normal or lower rainfall during the June to September period [3]. This projection suggests a significant risk of water scarcity for the duration of the season.
Seasonal rainfall is likely to reach only 90 percent of the Long Period Average [3]. This shortfall is expected to coincide with hotter temperatures throughout June, further stressing the environment and public health [3].
The disparity in the monsoon's movement — with rapid progress in the south and south-west while the rest of the country lags — creates a complex weather pattern for the 2026 season [1], [2].
“The weather office has projected an 84 percent chance of below-normal or lower rainfall”
The combination of a delayed monsoon onset and a high probability of below-normal rainfall suggests a potential agricultural crisis for 2026. Because the IMD projects a 90 percent average of the Long Period Average, the resulting water deficit may force the Indian government to implement stricter water management policies or increase food imports to stabilize domestic prices.
