Conflict involving Iran has disrupted the global supply chain for nitrogen-based fertilizer, driving up prices and increasing the risk of a food-production crisis.
This disruption threatens the stability of global food systems because modern industrial agriculture relies on a steady, inexpensive supply of nutrients to maintain crop yields. When these supplies fail, the cost of production rises, which eventually increases the price of food for consumers.
The crisis has intensified since the outbreak of the war in early 2025 and has worsened through 2026. Major fertilizer production sites in the Middle East and North Africa have been affected, while key choke points in the Gulf—specifically the Strait of Hormuz—have become impassable for many commercial vessels.
According to reports, naval vessels carrying fertilizer have been detained or destroyed [1]. Additionally, several regional fertilizer plants were forced to shut down, removing the bulk supply that farmers worldwide depend on [1].
These logistical failures have had a measurable impact on the market. Fertilizer prices have risen by roughly 30% since the conflict began [1]. Furthermore, more than 15 million metric tons of fertilizer shipments have been delayed or rerouted [2].
"Modern farming depends on cheap fertilizer," Travis Hartman said [1].
As the supply chain remains fractured, the pressure is moving from the fields to the marketplace. "With ships trapped and plants shut down, fertilizer prices have spiked, putting pressure on grocery bills worldwide," Hartman said [2].
“"Modern farming depends on cheap fertilizer."”
The intersection of geopolitical conflict and agricultural dependency highlights a critical vulnerability in the global food supply chain. Because nitrogen-based fertilizers are concentrated in a few volatile regions, any disruption in the Strait of Hormuz creates a ripple effect that transforms a regional war into a global economic burden, manifesting as food inflation and potential crop shortages.
