Iran is losing its ability to manage regional proxies and is instead using the Strait of Hormuz as a primary bargaining chip [1].
This shift suggests a decline in Tehran's ability to project power through third-party militias. If Iran can no longer reliably direct its allies, it may resort to more direct threats against global shipping lanes to force concessions from international powers.
Military and strategic expert Nidal Abu Zaid said that Iran has begun to sense a decline in its capacity to manage its agents across the Middle East [1]. This loss of control affects a network of groups including Hezbollah in Lebanon, various militias in Iraq, and the Houthis in Yemen [1].
According to Abu Zaid, the Iranian leadership is now clinging to the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz [1]. Abu Zaid said this waterway is viewed by Tehran as the specific tool that provides a stronger negotiating position in any upcoming talks [1].
Control over the strait remains a critical vulnerability for the global economy due to the volume of oil passing through the narrow corridor. By emphasizing this leverage, Iran seeks to offset the waning influence it holds over its regional partners [1].
Abu Zaid said that the reliance on the strait is a response to the perceived instability of its proxy network [1]. This transition from indirect influence to direct strategic threats marks a change in how Tehran approaches regional diplomacy and security.
“Iran is losing its ability to manage regional proxies.”
The perceived erosion of Iran's 'axis of resistance' suggests a potential pivot in regional strategy. If Tehran can no longer rely on proxies to create plausible deniability or exert pressure, it may increase direct threats to maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz to maintain its relevance and leverage in diplomatic negotiations.
