Rice prices across Japan are falling in 2026, leading some farmers to consider skipping their harvests due to plummeting market values [1].
This trend signals a significant shift in the agricultural economy, as the combination of oversupply and lower production costs puts financial pressure on growers while offering relief to consumers.
In major producing regions, the price decline is stark. In Miyazaki prefecture, 60kg of brown rice is priced at ¥18,000, which is a drop of more than 40% compared to 2025 [1]. Similarly, prices in Kagoshima prefecture are around ¥20,540, roughly 20% cheaper than in 2025 [1]. These declines are attributed to lower production costs, current inventory levels, and the early settlement of advance payments in these regions [1, 2].
Retail prices at supermarkets reflect this downward trend, though figures vary by region. A supermarket in Adachi-ku, Tokyo, sold five kg of Ibaraki-origin Koshihikari for ¥3,218 [1]. Some stores have reported prices for five kg bags falling below ¥3,000 [7].
National averages show a steady decline. The average national supermarket price for five kg of rice was ¥3,590 during the week of June 15-21 [4]. This is lower than an earlier reported average of ¥3,796 [5]. More recent data indicates the average has dipped further to ¥3,554 [6].
Despite these current averages, market experts said that five kg of new rice will cost around ¥3,000 in 2026 [8]. This forecast suggests that the market may continue to soften as the new crop arrives. The prospect of lower returns has caused some farmers to say that it may be better not to harvest at all to avoid further losses [1].
“Rice prices across Japan are falling in 2026”
The decline in rice prices highlights a volatile transition for Japanese agriculture. While consumers benefit from lower costs for a staple food, the sharp drop in wholesale prices—particularly the 40% plunge in regions like Miyazaki—threatens the livelihoods of small-scale farmers. If the predicted ¥3,000 price point becomes the norm, the government may face pressure to implement support measures to prevent farmers from abandoning their crops, which could lead to long-term food security risks.
