Japan Travel Bureau (JTB) projects that domestic and overseas summer travel will decline for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic [1].
This shift indicates a turning point in the post-pandemic recovery, as economic pressures begin to outweigh the previous surge in "revenge travel" demand. Rising costs are now deterring Japanese citizens from taking their usual seasonal trips.
JTB forecasts that approximately 69 million people will travel domestically this summer [1]. This represents a 4.4% decrease compared to the previous year [1]. The agency also expects overseas travel to drop, with projections of about 2.17 million travelers [1]. This figure marks an 8.8% decline year-over-year [1].
The downturn is attributed to a combination of inflation and currency instability. Fuel surcharges have increased due to tensions in the Middle East [3]. Additionally, the depreciation of the yen has made international trips more expensive, prompting travelers to seek more affordable options [3].
Destination preferences are shifting as a result of these economic constraints. Travel to China is expected to drop by roughly 55% compared to last year [1]. Conversely, travelers are opting for closer, more affordable destinations. Travel to South Korea is projected to increase by about six percent [1], and travel to Taiwan is also expected to rise by approximately six percent [1].
JTB said these trends reflect the broader impact of rising prices on consumer behavior. The agency said that the cost of travel has become a primary barrier for many households during the summer vacation period [1].
“Domestic summer travelers are projected at about 69 million, a 4.4% decrease from the previous year.”
The projected decline signals that the 'pent-up demand' phase of the post-pandemic era has ended. As the weak yen continues to erode purchasing power and geopolitical tensions drive up aviation costs, Japanese consumers are pivoting toward 'short-haul' tourism. This shift suggests a long-term correction in travel habits where proximity and cost-efficiency override the desire for long-distance international exploration.
