The Japanese government aims to reduce projected earthquake fatalities in Tokyo by more than 50% over the next 10 years [2].
This initiative focuses on mitigating fire-related deaths, which the government estimates account for approximately 70% of all fatalities in a capital-direct earthquake scenario [3]. By targeting the primary cause of death, officials hope to lower the human cost of a major seismic event in the densely populated metropolitan area.
According to updated damage assumptions from December 2025, the projected death toll for a capital-direct earthquake remains at approximately 18,000 people [1]. The worst-case scenario assumes a maximum seismic intensity of seven in Koto Ward [8].
To achieve the reduction goal, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism is updating the Emergency Measures Promotion Basic Plan. A central component of this strategy is the deployment of seismic-sensing circuit breakers, known as "kanshin breakers," which automatically cut power during tremors to prevent electrical fires [3].
Financial and structural projections for such an event are severe. Government officials said that approximately 400,000 buildings are estimated to either collapse completely or be destroyed by fire [5]. The total economic damage is estimated at approximately 83 trillion yen [6].
Beyond the immediate casualties, the government expects approximately 4.8 million people would be forced to evacuate [4]. The urgency of these measures is underscored by the fact that there is an approximately 70% probability of a capital-direct earthquake occurring within the next 30 years [7].
Government officials said the goal is to reduce the estimated death toll to less than half of the current projection by 2035 [2].
“The projected death toll for a capital-direct earthquake remains at approximately 18,000 people.”
The shift in Japan's strategy represents a transition from general structural reinforcement to targeted technological intervention. By prioritizing seismic-sensing breakers, the government is acknowledging that while building collapse is a risk, the secondary effect of urban fire-storms poses the greatest threat to life in Tokyo. This approach targets the 'fire-following-earthquake' phenomenon that historically devastated Japanese cities, aiming to break the chain of ignition before fires can merge into uncontrollable conflagrations.
