OPEC Secretary-General Haitham al-Ghais dismissed the International Energy Agency’s forecast of a 2027 oil-supply glut during an interview with CNBC on Wednesday [1, 2].
The disagreement highlights a fundamental rift between the world's primary oil producers and global energy watchdogs regarding future market stability. As the Strait of Hormuz reopens, the two organizations hold opposing views on whether the resolution of the conflict will lead to a surplus of crude.
Al-Ghais said the IEA’s projection of a supply overhang does not reflect the current market realities. He specifically questioned the basis of the IEA's data, asking, "What does the IEA see that OPEC and the rest don’t see?" [1, 2].
The IEA had previously suggested that a lasting resolution to the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz could drive a surge in supply volumes. According to the agency, this increase could trigger a major oil overhang in 2027 [2].
While the IEA warns of a future surplus, OPEC has been adjusting its own near-term expectations. The organization recently revised its 2026 global oil-demand growth estimate down to 1.17 million barrels per day [3].
Al-Ghais said the reopening of the critical shipping lane eases market concerns rather than creating a volatile glut. He said the IEA's outlook is inaccurate in the context of the current geopolitical landscape [1, 2].
“"What does the IEA see that OPEC and the rest don’t see?"”
The tension between OPEC and the IEA reflects a broader struggle for influence over global oil pricing and production strategy. If the IEA's prediction of a 2027 glut proves correct, it could lead to significant price drops that pressure oil-dependent economies. However, OPEC's dismissal suggests they believe demand will remain robust enough to absorb the increased supply resulting from the reopened Strait of Hormuz.
