Lori Calvasina, a senior strategist at RBC Capital Markets, maintains a bullish outlook for the S&P 500 with a 12-month price target of 8,150 [2].
This projection comes as investors weigh the potential for Federal Reserve rate hikes and geopolitical instability in the Middle East against strong corporate growth.
Calvasina raised the target from an earlier mark of 7,900 [2], which implies an upside of nearly 11% [2]. Other estimates based on different benchmarks suggest an implied upside of 11.4% from the July 29 close [6], or 7.7% from early May levels [4]. RBC has provided a broader target range for the year between 7,750 and 8,150 [3].
The strategist said the market can continue to climb due to resilient consumer spending and strong earnings linked to artificial intelligence. These factors are expected to offset headwinds including Middle East tensions and the risk of further rate increases by the Federal Reserve.
"We continue to think of our forecast as higher but not heroic and reflective of the idea that stocks can move higher in the year ahead even though the path is uncertain," Calvasina said in a note [7].
Market volatility has been a recurring theme, and Calvasina said that RBC raised its target despite a pullback at the start of 2026 [8]. The current outlook balances these risks against the underlying strength of the U.S. economy.
External pressures remain a factor in the broader economic landscape. For example, Brent crude has been priced around $89 per barrel [9], reflecting the ongoing geopolitical risks that could impact inflation and central bank policy.
“"Stocks can move higher in the year ahead even though the path is uncertain."”
The divergence in price targets—ranging from 7,900 to 8,150—highlights the uncertainty surrounding the timing of Federal Reserve policy shifts. By maintaining a target above 8,000, RBC is signaling that AI-driven productivity and consumer strength are more powerful drivers of equity value than the immediate risks of interest rate volatility or global energy price spikes.
