U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) reported that migrant detentions at the U.S.-Mexico border have fallen approximately 95% [1].
The decline comes as the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) intensifies efforts to deter illegal crossings through public warnings and stricter enforcement. This shift in migration patterns follows a period of historic highs in irregular arrivals.
CBP released a video showing a series of detentions in the Rio Bravo region to serve as a warning to would-be migrants. The video captions state, "Serás detenido, arrestado y deportado," which translates to "You will be detained, arrested, and deported" [0].
According to CBP data, the number of detentions has reached historic lows since the start of the U.S. fiscal year in January 2024 [1]. The current rate of detentions has dropped to eight migrants per hour [2].
These figures represent a significant decrease compared to levels seen more than three decades ago [1]. The administration said this downturn is due to recent immigration-enforcement policies designed to discourage illegal entry [0, 2].
Other reports indicate a different scale of decline. Some data suggests an 87.3% decrease in arrests during 2025 [3]. While CBP said the drop is due to U.S. policy, other sources link the decrease to actions taken by the administration of Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum in 2025 [3].
CBP said the agency will continue to monitor the Rio Bravo region and maintain a presence to ensure that anyone attempting to cross illegally is processed and removed from the country [0].
“"Serás detenido, arrestado y deportado"”
The sharp decline in border detentions reflects a convergence of aggressive U.S. deterrence tactics and potential cooperation or policy shifts within Mexico. By publicizing the 95% drop alongside footage of arrests, the U.S. government is attempting to signal that the 'cost' of illegal entry now outweighs the perceived reward, effectively using data as a psychological tool to prevent future migration surges.
