The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) expects an El Niño event to develop this summer, starting in June 2026 [1, 3].
This phenomenon is critical because it triggers global climate disruptions that can destabilize food and water security, particularly across the Middle East and North Africa.
El Niño occurs when there is an unusual temporary increase in the temperature of the surface waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean [3, 4]. These shifts in ocean temperature alter atmospheric patterns, leading to extreme weather events in distant regions. For the Arab world, this typically manifests as severe heatwaves, droughts, or unexpected flooding [3].
According to reports, the event may affect millions of people worldwide [2]. The WMO said the phenomenon is expected to reach a moderate to strong intensity [4]. While some reports emphasize the potential for significant temperature spikes and severe drought [3], other data focuses on the overall strength of the cycle as moderate to strong [4].
Climate experts, including Tatiana Mossad, said these Pacific disruptions ripple across the globe. In the Arab region, the unpredictability of rainfall and the intensification of heat can strain agricultural systems, and urban infrastructure. The intersection of these climate shocks with existing water scarcity creates a high-risk environment for regional stability.
Because the event begins in the tropical Pacific, its effects are not immediate but evolve as the season progresses. The combination of rising surface temperatures and shifting wind patterns creates a domino effect that can lead to catastrophic crop failures or devastating floods in vulnerable areas [2, 3].
“The WMO expects the phenomenon to reach a moderate to strong intensity.”
The emergence of a moderate to strong El Niño in 2026 exacerbates existing vulnerabilities in the Arab world, where water scarcity is already a systemic issue. By amplifying extreme weather, this cycle threatens to disrupt regional food supply chains and increase the humanitarian burden on populations already facing climate instability.
