Global Coffee Prices Rise Amid Tariffs and Conflict

Coffee prices have risen over the past month due to a combination of trade tariffs, adverse weather, and geopolitical conflict [1, 2].

These price hikes affect global supply chains and consumer costs, signaling a volatile market where environmental and political factors intersect to impact a daily staple for millions.

Trade policies under President Donald Trump (R-US) have contributed to the trend. Some tariffs were paused for 90 days ^[1], but the overarching trade environment continues to pressure pricing. This shift in cost is occurring alongside significant disruptions in coffee-growing regions worldwide [2, 3].

Environmental factors are playing a primary role in the supply shortage. Bad weather in key growing areas has reduced yields, making the raw commodity more expensive to source [2, 4]. These climate-related issues create a baseline of instability that compounds other economic pressures.

Geopolitical instability is further straining the market. Conflict involving Iran has been identified as a factor driving up costs ^[2]. The intersection of war and trade barriers creates a complex environment for importers who must navigate both physical supply shortages and legislative costs.

Reports vary on the primary driver of the inflation. Some data suggests that tariffs imposed by President Trump are the leading cause of the price surge ^[1]. Other reports said that the combination of the war in Iran and poor weather conditions are the main factors ^[2].