The India Meteorological Department forecasts that southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall will reach approximately 90% of the long-period average [1].
This prediction signals a below-normal monsoon for the country, which could impact agricultural output and food pricing across the region.
The agency released the forecast on Friday, noting that the June-September rainfall is expected to be 90% of the long-period average [1]. The IMD said that this projection carries a model error of about four percent [2].
Climate models suggest that prevailing atmospheric conditions, including the influence of El Niño, are contributing to the projected deficit [3]. The IMD has retained this below-normal outlook for 2026 as the country prepares for the seasonal shift [3].
Local weather updates indicate that the monsoon is expected to make its onset over Kerala within the next seven days [2]. While the national outlook remains below average, the agency predicts rainfall for 19 states, which may provide much-needed relief from current heatwaves in northern areas such as Delhi [2].
"The Southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over India is expected to be 90 per cent of the long period average this year," the India Meteorological Department said [1].
Agricultural stability in India depends heavily on the timing and volume of these rains. A deficit of 10% compared to the long-term average can strain water resources, and affect crop yields for staple grains.
“The India Meteorological Department forecasts that southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall will reach approximately 90% of the long-period average.”
A below-normal monsoon forecast typically triggers concerns regarding food inflation, as India's agrarian economy relies on the southwest monsoon for the majority of its annual precipitation. With the IMD citing El Niño as a likely influence, the 10% projected deficit may necessitate government interventions in water management and crop insurance to mitigate potential losses in the agricultural sector.
