The Iranian regime is becoming increasingly hardline and appears locked in despite external efforts to promote regime change, according to Professor Greg Barton [1].
This shift suggests that immediate hopes for a moderate transition in Tehran may be unrealistic. As the ruling class tightens its grip, the risk of internal instability or intensified external conflict increases while the government resists diplomatic pivots.
Barton, the Deakin University Global Islamic Politics Chair, said the dynamics of the Iranian state in an interview with Sky News Australia [1]. He said the current state of the leadership is in a position where they are growing more hardline as they consolidate power [1, 2].
While the immediate outlook appears rigid, Barton noted that long-term pressures could still result in a shift. He said, "There is, down the track … the regime change in Iran may come because of the damage that’s been done last year and this year" [1].
The expert said that the cumulative damage inflicted on the regime over the past two years may eventually create a breaking point [1]. This suggests a paradox where the regime's current hardline stance is a reaction to the very pressures that might eventually undermine it.
Barton said that such a transition could eventually occur within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ regime [1]. The current atmosphere remains one of defiance, as the ruling establishment prioritizes survival over reform, a strategy that characterizes the "mafia state" dynamics of the current administration [2].
“The Iranian regime is becoming increasingly hardline and appears locked in.”
The assessment that the Iranian regime is 'locked in' indicates a narrowing window for diplomatic engagement. When a regime responds to external pressure by becoming more hardline rather than conceding, it typically signals that the ruling elite views survival as dependent on ideological purity and internal security rather than international legitimacy.
