The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) forecasts below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures across most of the country from June to August [1], [2].
These conditions threaten agricultural productivity and public health in a region already vulnerable to extreme weather patterns and water scarcity.
According to the PMD, rainfall is expected to be near-normal to slightly below-normal across most parts of the country [2]. However, the largest rainfall deficits are expected in Northeastern Punjab, Kashmir, and adjoining areas of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa [2].
Meteorologists attribute the outlook to two primary climatic drivers. The Indian Ocean Dipole is currently neutral but is expected to shift to a positive phase by July [1]. Simultaneously, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is in a positive phase and is expected to strengthen further during the season [1].
The combination of higher temperatures and erratic precipitation patterns creates additional health risks. The PMD said there is a higher risk of vector-borne diseases, such as dengue, due to the forecasted conditions [1].
The agency's projections highlight the continuing impact of global climate shifts on South Asian monsoon patterns. The shift in the Indian Ocean Dipole typically alters moisture transport, which can lead to the deficits predicted for the northern regions [1].
“Rainfall is expected to be near-normal to slightly below-normal across most parts of the country.”
The convergence of a strengthening El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole suggests a volatile summer for Pakistan. Reduced rainfall in the north combined with extreme heat often leads to crop failure and water shortages, while the specific environmental conditions forecasted are known to accelerate the breeding cycles of mosquitoes, increasing the likelihood of public health crises.
