Pauline Hanson, leader of the One Nation party, is seeing a surge in voter support linked to her refusal to be politically correct [1, 2].
This shift suggests a growing appetite for anti-establishment politics in Australia, potentially disrupting the traditional dominance of major parties. The trend reflects a broader global movement where voters gravitate toward leaders who challenge social norms and political conventions [5].
Analysis of opinion polls released in early 2024 indicates a significant rise in the party's popularity [2, 3]. Some polling data from the RedBridge Group and Accent Research suggests One Nation could win up to 59 lower-house seats [4]. This growth is appearing across various regions, including South Australia and migrant communities in Western Sydney [6].
Commentators suggest that Hanson's perceived authenticity is a primary driver for this momentum. Sharri Markson of Sky News Australia said that Hanson, like Donald Trump, does not care about what is politically correct or considered socially acceptable [1].
This movement is attracting a diverse range of voters, including women, and those in urban centers who feel alienated by the political center [5, 6]. David Elliot, a former NSW Police minister, said that One Nation’s support has skyrocketed [3].
Hanson has framed this rise as a response to a general desire for systemic change. "Australians are crying out for change," Hanson said [2].
The surge is creating a strategic challenge for the Liberal Party, as One Nation competes for a similar conservative voter base [3]. The party's growth is viewed by some as a manifestation of a "huge grievance" among the electorate [4].
“"Australians are crying out for change."”
The rise of One Nation indicates a fragmentation of the conservative vote in Australia. By leveraging a populist image and rejecting political correctness, Hanson is capturing voters who feel the major parties are out of touch with their grievances. This trend mirrors far-right populist surges seen in other Western democracies, where 'authenticity' is prioritized over traditional diplomatic discourse.
