Michelle Bolsonaro and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro are engaged in an internal power struggle to control the political agenda of the bolsonarismo movement [1, 2].
This conflict emerges as the right-wing movement seeks a new leader now that former President Jair Bolsonaro is no longer eligible to run for office. The dispute threatens to fracture the coalition's unity as different factions vie for the political inheritance of the former president [1, 2].
The tension has been described as a "cold war" within the network [2]. At the center of the friction is the control over who will have the final say regarding the movement's strategy, and the endorsement of specific candidates [1, 2].
Senator Flávio Bolsonaro is currently positioning a pre-candidacy for the 2026 election [1]. This ambition has created friction, as the alliance between Michelle Bolsonaro and other political figures has reportedly irritated Eduardo Bolsonaro, further widening the rift within the family's political circle [1].
Beyond the immediate election cycle, the struggle for dominance extends into long-term planning. The internal conflict is also linked to strategic positioning for the 2030 election cycle [2].
Observers of the movement said the struggle is not merely personal but is a fight for the ideological and operational steering of the right-wing base in Brazil [1, 2]. The outcome of this struggle will determine which faction maintains the loyalty of the bolsonarista electorate as they transition to a post-Jair Bolsonaro era [2].
“A "cold war" internal power struggle within the Bolsonaro movement”
The fragmentation of the Bolsonaro family's political unity suggests a transition from a personality-driven movement to one defined by competing power centers. If Michelle and Flávio Bolsonaro cannot reconcile their agendas, the movement may split into separate factions, potentially weakening their collective bargaining power and electoral viability in future Brazilian national elections.
