Météo-France and the World Meteorological Organization said that the return of the El Niño phenomenon could trigger an unusually hot summer in France [1, 2].
This development matters because El Niño alters Pacific Ocean temperatures, which can lead to global weather anomalies. These shifts often manifest as severe droughts, heavy rains, and a rise in average temperatures that increase the risk of a canicule, or heatwave, across Western Europe [3, 4].
Forecasters said the return of El Niño is very probable for the summer of 2026 in France [1]. While the phenomenon influences global patterns, its specific impact on French territory is being closely monitored by climate experts to determine the severity of potential heat spikes [1, 3].
Reports said El Niño is expected to develop from the end of summer 2026 and reach its peak at the end of the year [4]. This timeline suggests that while the initial warming effects may be felt during the summer months, the full intensity of the climate cycle will persist through the autumn and winter seasons.
The phenomenon operates by warming the surface waters of the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. This shift disrupts atmospheric circulation, often pushing heat toward regions that typically experience more temperate climates, including France [3, 4].
Meteorological agencies said they continue to track these Pacific temperature shifts to refine their local predictions. The interaction between El Niño and existing global warming trends remains a primary focus for those preparing public health and agricultural responses to extreme heat [1, 2].
“The return of El Niño is considered "very probable" for the summer of 2026 in France.”
The convergence of a 'super' El Niño event with long-term global warming trends increases the likelihood of record-breaking temperatures. For France, this means a higher probability of heat-related public health crises and agricultural stress, as the natural climate cycle amplifies the existing trend of rising average temperatures.
