Professor Michael Clarke said that Iran could open and close the Strait of Hormuz on a regular basis through sporadic attacks [1].
The instability of this narrow waterway between Oman and Iran threatens global shipping and energy security, as it serves as a primary artery for oil transit [2].
Clarke, a defense and security analyst, said the waterway will become increasingly unstable and that Iran could open and close it at will [1]. This warning follows a recent attack on a container ship that caused minimal damage but triggered a UN evacuation halt [1].
Iran has used the waterway as a geopolitical lever to respond to regional events, such as Israeli strikes in Lebanon [5]. An Iranian military spokesperson said on June 24, 2026, that the country would close the Strait of Hormuz in response to Israeli aggression [3].
The status of the waterway has fluctuated rapidly this week. The U.S. government reported the strait was open for transit on June 23, 2026 [4]. However, Iran declared the waterway closed again on June 24, 2026 [6].
These contradictions in the operational status of the strait create significant uncertainty for international markets. Analysis suggests that the world must reduce its reliance on the Strait of Hormuz to safeguard global energy supplies [2].
Clarke's assessment suggests that the pattern of sporadic closures may become a permanent feature of the region's security landscape. Such volatility complicates the risk assessments for commercial shipping companies, and insurance providers operating in the Gulf [1].
“The Strait of Hormuz will become increasingly unstable, and Iran could open and close it at will.”
The shift from total closure to 'sporadic' instability suggests a strategy of asymmetric pressure. By intermittently disrupting traffic, Iran can signal its displeasure with regional actors without triggering a full-scale international naval conflict, while simultaneously forcing global markets to price in constant volatility.
