The Japan Meteorological Agency announced June 10 that the El Niño phenomenon has occurred for the first time in approximately two years [1].
This development is significant because the intensity of the temperature rise suggests a "super El Niño," which can trigger extreme weather patterns globally and specifically impact conditions within Japan.
According to the agency, El Niño is identified when sea surface temperatures off the coast of Peru in South America remain 0.5 degrees Celsius or more above average for more than one year [1]. Current data indicates that temperatures have reached a rise of 2 degrees Celsius [1].
"On June 10, the Meteorological Agency announced that the 'El Niño phenomenon' has occurred for the first time in about two years," said caster Takahiro Inoue [1].
Weather forecaster Manami Sakaguchi said the phenomenon is confirmed when sea surface temperatures off the coast of Peru remain 0.5 degrees Celsius or more higher than usual for over a year [1]. The current spike to 2 degrees Celsius marks a substantial deviation from historical norms.
Earlier reports from May indicated a 90 percent probability of the event occurring [2], though the agency had stated at that time that neither El Niño nor La Niña had yet manifested [3]. The June 10 announcement confirms the transition from a high-probability forecast to an active event.
Environmental experts monitor these shifts closely as they influence precipitation and temperature cycles across the Pacific basin. The agency's latest findings suggest that the current cycle is significantly stronger than typical occurrences.
“The Japan Meteorological Agency announced on June 10 that the El Niño phenomenon has occurred for the first time in approximately two years.”
A 'super El Niño' represents an extreme version of the natural climate cycle, where the warming of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean is far more intense than usual. Because these events shift atmospheric circulation, they often lead to disrupted rainfall patterns, increased flooding in some regions, and severe droughts in others. For Japan, this typically manifests as abnormal seasonal temperatures and altered precipitation, potentially complicating agricultural planning and disaster preparedness.
