Morningstar has valued SpaceX at $780 billion [1], a figure that is less than half of the company's $1.75 trillion IPO target [2].
The valuation gap creates a significant hurdle for SpaceX as it attempts to transition from a private entity to a publicly traded company. A discrepancy of this magnitude suggests that institutional investors may push for a lower offering price than the company desires.
SpaceX began its IPO roadshow on Thursday, June 3, 2026 [3]. The company has launched the roadshow with a fixed price of $135 per share [4]. However, Morningstar analysts said the fair value of the company is 55 percent below that $1.75 trillion target [4].
Analysts pointed to a lack of broad profitability across the company's various segments to justify the lower valuation. According to Morningstar, only the Starlink satellite internet service is currently profitable [5]. The rest of the company's operations continue to require significant capital.
Further weighing on the valuation is the company's involvement with xAI. Morningstar analysts said the AI venture is projected to burn $10 billion in 2026 [5]. This expected cash burn contributes to the analyst firm's conclusion that the IPO target is nearly twice the fair value of the business [3].
"Morningstar pegs SpaceX's fair value at $780 billion — less than half the ask," a Morningstar analyst said [6].
Despite these projections, SpaceX continues to dominate the launch market and expand its orbital infrastructure. The tension between the company's operational success and its financial sustainability remains a central point of debate for Wall Street as the IPO process unfolds [4].
“Only Starlink is profitable; xAI is projected to burn $10 billion in 2026.”
This valuation clash highlights the struggle to price companies that possess immense strategic value but lack consistent profitability. While SpaceX controls critical space infrastructure, the heavy capital requirements of xAI and the reliance on Starlink for revenue create a risk profile that traditional analysts view differently than the company's leadership. The outcome of the roadshow will determine if the market prioritizes future growth potential or current cash flow.
