The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has warned of a hot and dry June with below-normal rainfall across most of the country [3].
This forecast signals a potential crisis for the region's water security and food production. Higher temperatures combined with low precipitation typically stress agricultural yields and exacerbate existing water shortages in a country already vulnerable to climate volatility.
According to the PMD, a specific heatwave is expected to occur from June 7 to June 12 [2]. During this window, the agency said the mercury is set to climb significantly nationwide. The most extreme conditions are anticipated in the southern and western regions, where maximum temperatures could reach up to 51°C in Sindh and Balochistan [2].
The agency said these conditions are not limited to a single week. The forecast indicates that above-normal temperatures and below-normal rainfall will persist throughout June and the subsequent three-month period through August [1, 3].
Climate patterns and the influence of El Niño are cited as the primary drivers for these uneven rainfall patterns and intensified heat [1, 3]. These atmospheric conditions create a cycle of drought and extreme heat that can devastate livestock and crop harvests.
Officials said the combination of high heat and low moisture increases the risk of heat-related illnesses and puts additional strain on the national power grid as cooling demands surge. The PMD continues to monitor the atmospheric shifts to provide updated warnings for the most affected provinces [1, 2].
“Maximum temperatures could reach up to 51°C in Sindh and Balochistan.”
The convergence of an El Niño-influenced dry spell and extreme heat puts Pakistan in a precarious position for its summer agricultural cycle. With temperatures potentially hitting 51°C, the risk of crop failure and water scarcity increases, likely forcing the government to implement emergency water management strategies to prevent a broader humanitarian or economic shock.
