DraftKings and FanDuel are expected to lose money on the 2026 NBA Finals regardless of whether the New York Knicks or San Antonio Spurs win [1].
This financial vulnerability stems from an imbalance in betting volume. When a vast majority of bettors back the same teams, sportsbooks cannot offset their potential payouts with losing bets, turning the event into a liability rather than a profit center.
The New York Knicks have attracted roughly half of all money wagered on the finals [2]. This high volume of season-long championship bets means the sportsbooks would face massive payouts if the New York team secures the title [2].
San Antonio presents a similar risk. An anonymous sports-betting trader said San Antonio "is the biggest remaining liability on the futures book," though the Knicks "are a loser for the book as well" [1].
Futures books operate by taking bets on an outcome long before the event occurs. In this case, the concentrated popularity of both the Knicks and the Spurs has left the operators exposed. Because both finalists are heavily backed by the betting public, the sportsbooks are positioned to pay out large sums no matter which team wins the series [1].
While some analysts suggest the timing of the finals is generally favorable for sportsbook activity, the specific composition of the 2026 matchup has created a rare scenario where the house is at a disadvantage [1].
“The New York team has attracted roughly half of all money wagered on the finals.”
This situation illustrates the risk of 'toxic flow' in sports betting, where professional or highly concentrated public betting patterns overwhelm a sportsbook's ability to balance its books. When two high-profile teams with massive fanbases reach the finals, the books lose their primary hedge, potentially leading to a rare quarterly loss on a marquee sporting event.
