Climate scientists warn that the onset of an El Niño could make 2026 one of the hottest years on record globally [1].
This trend suggests an acceleration of global warming patterns that threaten food security, water resources, and public health across multiple continents. The combination of natural climate cycles and human-induced changes creates a compounding effect that amplifies extreme weather events.
Data indicates that January 2026 was the hottest January on record globally [2]. This record-breaking start to the year serves as a primary indicator for the temperatures expected throughout the remainder of the period [2, 3].
Dr. Roxy Mathew Koll, a climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, said El Niño-driven atmospheric changes play a role [1]. These shifts, when combined with ongoing climate change, push global temperatures toward unprecedented levels [1].
Regional factors also contribute to the intensity of the heat. Land-use changes, such as deforestation, amplify heat extremes in specific areas [1]. This is particularly evident in India, where weather patterns are shifting due to these combined pressures [1].
Scientists referenced in reports from ScienceAlert and Phys.org said the atmospheric conditions leading into 2026 were already anomalous [2, 3]. The interplay between the warming ocean and the atmosphere creates a feedback loop that sustains higher temperatures for longer durations [2].
While El Niño is a natural cycle, its effects are now superimposed on a baseline of rising global temperatures [1]. This means that the peaks of the cycle reach higher absolute temperatures than they did in previous decades [3].
“January 2026 was the hottest January on record globally”
The intersection of a strong El Niño cycle with long-term anthropogenic climate change creates a 'stacking' effect. This means that natural variability no longer operates on a stable baseline, but rather on a rising trajectory of heat, making previously rare temperature extremes the new seasonal norm.
