Japan's provisional prices for the 2026 autumn rice harvest have fallen by more than ¥10,000 compared to the previous year [1].

This price collapse marks a sharp reversal from the previous year's shortage, known as the "Reiwa rice commotion," which had driven market costs upward. The current surplus threatens the income of farmers who relied on those higher prices to sustain their operations.

JA Zen-Nō Niigata announced the provisional payments for the upcoming harvest on Wednesday [1]. For first-grade Uonuma Koshihikari, the price was set at ¥21,000 per 60 kg [1]. General Koshihikari was priced at ¥18,500 per 60 kg [1].

The price drop follows a massive increase in nationwide supply. The Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries reported that private rice inventories reached 2.43 million tons at the end of June [2, 3]. This figure represents the largest inventory level since 2004 [4].

Government officials said that this volume significantly exceeds the appropriate private inventory level, which is estimated to be between 1.8 million and 2.0 million tons [2]. The surplus has created downward pressure on market prices, forcing the provisional price cuts.

In response to the crisis, representatives for rice farmers have called for government intervention. One farmer representative asked for the early buy-back of government reserve rice to stabilize the market [5]. Additionally, Juntaro Nakama said that it is important to ensure proper income compensation for farmers [6].

The shift from scarcity to surplus highlights the volatility of Japan's domestic rice market. Farmers now face a significant gap between their production costs and the provisional payments offered by agricultural cooperatives.

“Private rice inventories reached 2.43 million tons at the end of June [2].”

The swing from the 'Reiwa rice commotion' shortage to a record surplus demonstrates the fragility of Japan's rice supply chain. With inventories exceeding the optimal threshold by nearly 430,000 tons, the market is currently oversupplied, shifting the economic burden from consumers to producers. This volatility may prompt the government to adjust reserve rice policies to prevent extreme price fluctuations in future harvest cycles.