External shocks from global conflicts and climate change are severely hindering investment and economic development across Africa, Louise Fox said [1].
These disruptions threaten to reverse years of developmental progress by destabilizing commodity markets and reducing the flow of international aid. The convergence of these crises creates a precarious environment for sub-Saharan nations already struggling with post-pandemic recovery.
Speaking at the 2026 Spring Meetings of the IMF and World Bank in Washington, D.C., Fox said how the Iran war, the Ukraine war, the COVID-19 pandemic, and climate change have negatively impacted the continent [1]. These factors have disrupted global commodity markets and heightened food insecurity across the region.
The International Monetary Fund said that fresh economic shocks driven by global conflict, rising commodity prices, and declining aid flows risk pushing more than 20 million people across sub-Saharan Africa into moderate or severe food insecurity [2].
Energy volatility has further complicated the economic landscape. The International Energy Agency reported that oil prices surged above $100 per barrel and briefly reached $120 [3], levels not seen since the Ukraine war.
This energy shock is forcing a shift in infrastructure priorities. According to the Seattle Times, the global energy shock stemming from the Iran war is causing some nations in Africa and Asia to boost nuclear power generation and spur atomic energy plans in countries that previously lacked nuclear capabilities [4].
Fox said that the combination of these external pressures reduces the available capital for essential development projects. The loss of investment, coupled with the rising cost of imports, leaves many governments with fewer resources to combat the ongoing effects of climate change and the lingering impacts of the pandemic [1].
“Fresh economic shocks... risk pushing more than 20 million people across sub-Saharan Africa into moderate or severe food insecurity.”
The intersection of geopolitical instability and environmental crises is creating a 'polycrisis' for African economies. By shifting the focus from long-term development to short-term survival—such as managing food shortages and energy spikes—these shocks may lead to a permanent loss in potential GDP and a greater reliance on high-risk energy transitions like nuclear power to achieve energy security.
