Brazilian Senate President Davi Alcolumbre (União-AP) predicted that Jorge Messias would lose a Supreme Court nomination vote by eight votes [2].
The incident highlights the internal intelligence and influence held by the Senate leadership over the legislative process in Brasília. It suggests that the outcome of high-stakes judicial appointments is often known by leadership before official results are displayed.
During the session in the plenary of the Federal Senate, Alcolumbre spoke to Senator Jaques Wagner (PT-BA) regarding the pending vote [1]. According to reports, Alcolumbre said to Wagner that the nominee would not secure the necessary support [2].
"Ele vai perder por oito," Alcolumbre said [3].
The subsequent official tally confirmed the prediction. The Senate rejected the nomination of Jorge Messias with 42 votes in favor of rejection and 34 votes against [1]. This resulted in a final margin of eight votes [1].
The exchange occurred moments before the formal confirmation of the rejection was announced to the chamber [2]. The accuracy of the prediction underscores the level of coordination and communication between senators prior to the casting of votes, a common feature of the Brazilian legislative environment.
Jorge Messias had been nominated to the Supreme Court, but the failure to secure the required majority prevents his ascension to the high court. The rejection reflects the current political climate within the Senate and the specific challenges facing the executive branch's judicial picks [1].
“"Ele vai perder por oito."”
This event illustrates the gap between public legislative proceedings and the private calculations of Senate leadership. When the Senate President can accurately predict a specific vote margin, it indicates that the 'vote' is often a formalization of a pre-negotiated outcome rather than an uncertain deliberation.
