Researchers warn that the Amazon rainforest could lose up to 40% of its cover by 2100 if deforestation and warming continue [1].
This projection signals a potential tipping point for the global climate. The Amazon serves as a critical carbon sink and biodiversity hub, meaning its collapse would accelerate global warming and disrupt water cycles across South America.
Climate scientist Sachi Kitajima Mulkey led the study, which was published on May 6, 2026 [1]. The research team of Amazon ecologists found that the combination of aggressive deforestation and climate-driven drought is reducing water availability. This trend threatens the forest's ability to maintain its carbon-sequestration functions and sustain its diverse species [1].
"If we don't act, we could see up to 40% of the forest lost by 2100, pushing the Amazon toward irreversible collapse," Mulkey said [1].
Immediate evidence of this stress appeared last week in the port city of Manaus on the Rio Negro. On Friday, June 14, 2026, river levels hit a record low [2]. According to the Manaus Port Authority, this is the lowest level recorded since 1902 [2].
"The river is at its lowest level since 1902, a clear sign that the drought is already reshaping life along the Amazon," Maria Silva, director of the Manaus Port Authority, said [2].
While current drought conditions suggest imminent damage, the study outlines a path to avoid the worst-case scenario. The researchers said that aggressive conservation measures could prevent catastrophic loss and keep the forest largely intact [1]. This creates a tension between the immediate reality of water scarcity and the theoretical possibility of recovery through policy intervention [1], [2].
“"If we don't act, we could see up to 40% of the forest lost by 2100"”
The synchronization of long-term projections and immediate river-level crashes suggests that the Amazon is moving from a theoretical risk phase into an active state of decline. If the forest crosses the threshold into ecosystem collapse, it may transition from a carbon sink to a carbon source, fundamentally altering the trajectory of global climate targets.
