Shane Oliver, chief economist at AMP, said that planned increases in migration by the Labor government will make Australia's housing crisis more difficult to control [1].
The warning highlights a critical tension between national population growth targets and the physical capacity of the building sector to provide adequate shelter. If migration levels exceed the rate of new home construction, the resulting shortage typically drives up rents and property prices for all residents.
Oliver said these concerns during a Sky News Australia interview in September 2024 [1]. He argued that the net supply of housing must remain in balance with population growth for the government to successfully manage the current crisis.
According to Oliver, the current trajectory of migration creates a misalignment between demand and availability [1]. He said that the government must pursue a dual strategy to stabilize the market: increasing the volume of homes built, and simultaneously reducing immigration to a more sustainable level [1].
"The net supply of housing has to be in balance if Australia is going to get it under control," Oliver said [1].
Without this balance, Oliver said that higher net migration will continue to outpace the construction of new dwellings [1]. This gap in supply prevents the market from reaching an equilibrium, which further restricts housing availability for low- and middle-income earners.
"That means building more homes at the same time, lowering the immigration level down to a more sustainable level," Oliver said [1].
“The net supply of housing has to be in balance if Australia is going to get it under control.”
This analysis suggests that Australia's housing crisis is not merely a construction failure but a demographic balancing act. By linking migration levels directly to housing supply, Oliver identifies a systemic bottleneck where policy goals for economic growth through population increase may actively undermine the social goal of affordable housing.
