ANA Holdings and Japan Airlines (JAL) forecast significant decreases in net profits for the current fiscal year due to soaring aviation fuel prices [1, 2].
These projections signal a growing vulnerability for the aviation sector as geopolitical instability in the Middle East directly impacts operating costs. The financial strain is expected to be passed on to consumers through higher ticket prices and surcharges.
ANA expects its net profit to decrease by approximately 40% [1], representing a projected loss of about 60 billion yen [1]. JAL anticipates a smaller but still significant net profit decline of approximately 20% [1].
Japan Airlines Vice President Yuji Saito said the aviation fuel market is experiencing an unusual surge. He said that if current price levels continue, the company expects a monthly cost increase of approximately 20.8 billion yen [1].
To mitigate these costs, both carriers are adjusting fuel surcharges starting in June 2026 [1, 2]. These surcharges are expected to increase by 1.5 to 2 times [2]. Consequently, ticket prices for flights to Europe and the U.S. are expected to rise by more than 20,000 yen [2].
ANA Holdings President Koji Shibata said that situations could either worsen or improve. He said the company will continue to deepen its risk management flexibly as the situation evolves [1].
Airline projections currently assume that the instability in the Middle East will subside by the end of June 2026 [1]. However, the companies remain cautious about the volatility of the energy market and its impact on long-term profitability.
“ANA expects its net profit to decrease by approximately 40%”
The simultaneous profit warnings from Japan's two largest carriers underscore how sensitive the global aviation industry remains to geopolitical shocks. By increasing fuel surcharges, the airlines are shifting the burden of volatile energy markets to the passengers, which may impact travel demand for long-haul routes to North America and Europe during the summer season.
