NASA and scientists using the James Webb Space Telescope are monitoring asteroid 2024 YR4 to determine if it will hit the Moon in 2032 [1].

Precise tracking of near-Earth objects is critical for planetary defense. Accurate data allows scientists to determine whether an object poses a genuine threat to Earth or its satellite, ensuring that resources for mitigation are deployed only when necessary.

Recent reports regarding the asteroid's trajectory show significant contradictions. Some data suggest the risk of a lunar collision has been reduced to 0% [3, 4]. These reports said the object will instead make a closest approach to the Moon at a distance of 21,200 km [3].

Other analyses maintain that a threat still exists. Barron's said there is a probability of approximately 4% [2] that the asteroid will collide with the lunar surface. Similarly, Milenio said the lunar impact probability is 3.8% [1]. These figures represent a slight decrease from a previous estimate of 4.3% [3].

The asteroid is estimated to be about 60 meters in size [2]. While the James Webb Space Telescope has provided new observations to refine the orbit, the discrepancy between the 0% risk and the roughly 4% risk remains a point of contention among reporting sources.

NASA continues to evaluate these planetary-defense risks to better understand the behavior of near-Earth objects [1, 2]. The monitoring process involves calculating the gravitational influence of other celestial bodies, which can slightly alter an asteroid's path over several years.

“The risk of a lunar collision has been reduced to 0%.”

The contradiction in impact probabilities highlights the difficulty of long-term orbital prediction. A shift from a 4% risk to 0% often occurs as more precise telemetry from instruments like the James Webb Space Telescope narrows the 'error ellipse' of an object's path. While the asteroid does not currently threaten Earth, the variance in these numbers underscores the need for continuous observation leading up to the 2032 window.