The Atlantic basin officially began its cyclone period on Monday, June 1, 2026, with moderate activity expected across the region [1].

This start marks a critical window for emergency preparedness in the U.S. and Caribbean. While the season has technically begun, immediate storm development is being hindered by atmospheric conditions that could temporarily lower the risk of early-season landfalls.

U.S. meteorological authorities and Colorado State University said that a dense mass of Saharan dust is currently covering the area from the Antilles to Puerto Rico [1]. This phenomenon creates hazy skies and blocks solar radiation, which inhibits the immediate formation of tropical storms [1].

Despite the current dust interference, long-term forecasts suggest a steady level of activity. Experts said 13 named cyclones will form during the 2026 season [2]. Other forecasts from AccuWeather suggest a range between 11 and 16 named storms [3].

The interaction of global weather patterns continues to influence these projections. The El Niño phenomenon is currently playing a role, as it typically tends to reduce overall cyclonic activity in the Atlantic [1].

Risk assessments for the U.S. mainland remain a primary focus for officials. There is a 32% probability that a major hurricane will make landfall in the U.S. this year [2]. Monitoring continues across the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico as the dust layer shifts.

“A dense mass of Saharan dust is currently covering the area from the Antilles to Puerto Rico”

The presence of Saharan dust acts as a natural stabilizer that can suppress the birth of hurricanes by drying out the air and cooling the ocean surface. While this provides a temporary reprieve for the Antilles and Puerto Rico, it does not eliminate the seasonal risk. The 32% probability of a major U.S. landfall indicates that while the season may start slowly, the potential for high-impact events remains significant throughout the summer and autumn.