Experts warn that the AUKUS partnership will make Australia increasingly dependent on U.S. and U.K. shipbuilding capacity that is currently under financial strain.
This reliance creates a strategic vulnerability for Australia, as the pace of its naval modernization depends on the industrial health and political stability of its partners.
Sam Roggeveen, a senior fellow at the Lowy Institute, said the British defence spending plan could make it difficult to sustain the pace of the AUKUS project [1]. The U.S. shipbuilding industry is similarly stretched by high demand, which analysts said makes it difficult to maintain the rapid delivery schedule required by the pact [2].
Sir Stephen Lovegrove, the UK Defence Secretary, said the UK and US cannot afford submarine delays for Australia [2]. Despite these warnings, the program involves massive capital commitments. Australia has made a $4.2 billion payment to the United States for the first AUKUS submarine contract [3]. This includes a specific contract amount of $276 million with General Dynamics Electric Boat [3].
Critics of the deal argue the arrangement is not merely a strategic partnership but a financial burden. Malcolm Turnbull, the former Australian Prime Minister, said AUKUS is a huge wealth transfer from the Australian government to the US and the UK [3].
There is ongoing debate regarding how to mitigate these risks. Some reports suggest that Australia's acquisition of used Virginia-class submarines allows it to avoid the long lead-times and capacity constraints of new builds. However, other analysts said that the overarching dependency on foreign shipyards remains a critical point of failure for the program [1, 2].
“The UK and US cannot afford submarine delays for Australia.”
The AUKUS pact ties Australia's national security architecture to the industrial capacity of the U.S. and UK. If those nations face further budgetary cuts or shipbuilding bottlenecks, Australia may find itself with a funding gap and a fleet that cannot be delivered on time, regardless of its own financial contributions.
