Axis My India projects that Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) will win between 98 and 120 seats in the 234-seat Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly [1].
The projection suggests a significant shift in the state's political landscape, as the party led by actor Vijay enters its first major electoral contest.
The exit poll was released on April 29, 2026 [1]. According to the data, the TVK is positioned for a strong debut that could challenge established political forces in the region [1]. Axis My India said this projected success is due to the popularity of Vijay and the fresh appeal the new party holds among voters [2].
"TVK is projected to win between 98 and 120 seats in the 234‑seat Tamil Nadu Assembly," Axis My India said [1].
While this specific poll highlights a potential surge for the TVK, other data presents a different outlook. Some early surveys suggested that the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) would retain power with a substantial majority [2]. Additionally, reports from the Hindustan Times indicated a tight contest where the DMK alliance remained in the lead [3].
Despite these contradictions, Axis My India said that the TVK could capture up to 120 seats [3]. "Our exit poll shows a strong debut for Vijay’s TVK, potentially securing up to 120 seats," Axis My India said [3].
The 2026 elections are being closely watched as a test of whether celebrity influence can translate into a governing mandate in the 234-seat assembly [1]. Axis My India said TVK could outpace many other pollsters in its final seat count [4].
“TVK is projected to win between 98 and 120 seats in the 234‑seat Tamil Nadu Assembly.”
The discrepancy between Axis My India's projections and other surveys underscores the volatility of the 2026 Tamil Nadu election. If the TVK secures the projected 98 to 120 seats, it would represent one of the most successful political debuts in the state's history, potentially breaking the long-standing dominance of the DMK and AIADMK blocs by capturing a significant portion of the youth and celebrity-driven vote.
