Axis My India may not release its exit-poll data today for the 2026 West Bengal Assembly elections [1, 2].
The decision highlights a significant challenge in electoral forecasting when voters refuse to disclose their choices, potentially rendering high-profile predictions unreliable.
Pradeep Gupta, the founder of Axis My India, said the firm is hesitant to publish the data because the resulting sample is not representative [1, 2]. This lack of representation stems from a high proportion of surveyed individuals who declined to share their voting preferences [3].
According to data from the firm, more than 60% of surveyed voters refused to share their preferences [3]. This level of silence has compromised the statistical integrity of the poll, making it difficult to project a likely outcome for the state's assembly.
"We are not releasing the exit poll because voters are staying mum and the sample is not representative," Gupta said [1].
The data was expected to be released on Wednesday following the final phase of voting in West Bengal [2]. However, Gupta said Bengal predictions were not released on that day as voters were hesitant to speak [2].
The firm typically provides detailed projections for Indian elections, but the current environment in West Bengal has presented a unique obstacle. The refusal rate, exceeding 60%, creates a gap that prevents the firm from ensuring the accuracy of its final numbers [3].
“"We are not releasing the exit poll because voters are staying mum and the sample is not representative."”
The refusal of a majority of polled voters to disclose their choices suggests a high level of apprehension or strategic secrecy within the West Bengal electorate. When a sample size is compromised by such a high non-response rate, the risk of 'shy voter' syndrome increases, where the actual results diverge sharply from available data, making traditional exit polling an ineffective tool for predicting the outcome.
