Bitcoin's circulating supply in loss has surpassed 50% [1], triggering a countdown to a potential bear-market bottom.
This shift is significant because the supply-in-loss metric historically precedes market bottoms. Analysts, including those from K33, said the threshold is a primary indicator that the current bearish cycle may be nearing its conclusion [2, 3].
The metric crossed the 50% threshold at the start of June 2024 [1]. This movement has led some analysts to suggest a countdown of approximately 50 days to a potential bottom [1, 3]. Other reports suggest a broader window, placing the end of the bear market within a 91-day period [4].
Market projections regarding the actual price floor vary. Some analysts said the bottom could settle near $47,000 [4]. Conversely, other projections indicate a more bullish trajectory, with expectations that Bitcoin would be above $60,000 by July 17, 2026, citing a 99.8% confidence level [5].
Historically, when more than half of the supply is held at a loss, it indicates a period of maximum capitulation. This phase often marks the transition from a bear market to a recovery phase as exhausted sellers exit the market, and new buyers enter [2, 3].
The current volatility reflects a broader tension between short-term technical indicators and long-term price predictions. While the supply-in-loss metric provides a historical roadmap, the exact timing of the bottom remains a point of contention among global cryptocurrency analysts [1, 4].
“Bitcoin's circulating supply in loss has surpassed 50%”
The crossing of the 50% supply-in-loss threshold suggests that the majority of Bitcoin holders are currently underwater. In cryptocurrency cycles, this level of widespread loss often signals a 'capitulation' phase, which typically precedes a trend reversal. While the exact timeline—ranging from 50 to 91 days—and the price floor remain disputed, the metric indicates the market is entering a critical window for a potential long-term bottom.
