Bitwise Asset Management Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan said investors should stop debating Bitcoin's price bottom and focus on long-term market drivers.
This shift in perspective is critical because short-term price speculation often obscures the fundamental value proposition of digital assets. By reframing the conversation, Hougan aims to move the market toward an analysis of how Bitcoin competes with traditional assets as a global store of value.
In a Bitwise internal memo and subsequent discussions, Hougan addressed the varying predictions regarding Bitcoin's price floors. He noted that while firms like Galaxy, NYDIG, and Standard Chartered disagree on where the bottom lies, all three expect another bull cycle, he said [1].
Hougan said that focusing on the immediate floor is the wrong question. Instead, he pointed to the potential for Bitcoin to capture a sizable share of the global store-of-value market, which is valued at $38 trillion [2].
According to Hougan, if Bitcoin captures 17% of that market, the price of a single Bitcoin could reach $1 million [3]. He said that this trajectory is plausible if the asset follows a path similar to that of gold [3].
Comparing the asset to other high-growth investments, Hougan said, "Bitcoin is less volatile than Nvidia" [4]. This comparison highlights his view that Bitcoin's volatility is often overstated when compared to individual equity stocks in the technology sector.
By emphasizing the $38 trillion opportunity, Hougan seeks to detach the asset's future from immediate price fluctuations and link it to the broader movement of global capital into digital stores of value [2].
“Bitcoin could hit $1 million if it captures a sizable share of the $38 trillion store-of-value market.”
Hougan's analysis attempts to transition Bitcoin from a speculative trading instrument to a legitimate institutional asset class. By benchmarking Bitcoin against the total store-of-value market rather than its own historical price floors, he provides a mathematical framework for extreme price targets that rely on market share adoption rather than mere momentum.
