BlackRock said artificial intelligence will remain inflationary and keep pressure on global prices until the year 2036 [1].
This projection challenges the widely held belief that AI would rapidly lower inflation by automating tasks and increasing efficiency. If the world's largest asset manager is correct, central banks and corporations may face a decade of higher costs than previously anticipated.
The assessment appears in BlackRock’s Spring 2026 investment framework [2]. The firm said the current phase of AI adoption is characterized by massive capital expenditures, which act as a macro-level cost driver [3, 4]. Rather than providing immediate deflationary relief, these investments are increasing the costs of doing business across various sectors.
BlackRock said the productivity gains expected from AI are being delayed [4]. This lag means that the cost of implementing the technology is currently outweighing the savings it generates. Consequently, the firm expects this inflationary pressure to persist for the next 10 years [1].
Global markets are the primary focus of this outlook [5]. The firm said AI-related energy shocks and the need for diversification are defining factors for markets in 2026 [5]. The transition to AI-integrated economies requires significant infrastructure spending, which contributes to the upward pressure on prices.
While some analysts expected AI to trigger a productivity boom that would lower the cost of goods and services, BlackRock's framework indicates the opposite is happening in the short to medium term. The firm said the financial burden of building the AI ecosystem will keep inflation elevated until the projected 2036 timeline [1, 4].
“AI will remain inflationary and keep pressure on global prices until the year 2036”
This outlook suggests a fundamental shift in the economic narrative surrounding generative AI. While the technology is often marketed as a tool for efficiency, BlackRock's analysis highlights that the 'build-out' phase—characterized by expensive chips, massive data centers, and soaring energy demands—creates a cost floor that prevents inflation from dropping. For investors and policymakers, this implies that the deflationary 'AI dividend' may be a distant prospect rather than an immediate reality.
