Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) are tied for the lead in Minas Gerais ahead of the 2026 presidential election.
Minas Gerais is often viewed as a bellwether state in Brazilian politics. A dead heat between the two primary contenders suggests a highly polarized electorate in a region that frequently decides the national outcome.
The poll, commissioned by Globo and conducted by Quaest, found Flávio Bolsonaro with 31% support [1]. Lula's support is recorded at 31% in scenarios including candidate Pablo Marçal [1], though some data indicates 30% when Marçal is excluded [2].
Other candidates trail significantly in the single digits. Romeu Zema holds seven% support [2], while Pablo Marçal and Renan Santos each hold three% [2]. Caiado follows with two% [1].
Fieldwork for the survey took place between Aug. 19 and Aug. 25 [4], with some reports specifying the window as Aug. 21 to Aug. 24 [5]. The poll surveyed 1,506 respondents [5].
Analysts said that the candidates are tied within the margin of error. Reports on the margin of error vary between ±2 percentage points [4] and ±3 percentage points [5].
Metrópoles said the two candidates lead the national dispute among voters in Minas Gerais while remaining tied within the margin of error [3]. The results highlight a stark divide between the PL and PT platforms in the state.
“Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) are tied for the lead in Minas Gerais.”
The statistical tie in Minas Gerais underscores the continued polarization of the Brazilian electorate. Because the state's diverse demographics often mirror the national mood, the inability of either Flávio Bolsonaro or Lula to establish a clear lead this early suggests that the 2026 race will be decided by small shifts in undecided voters or the influence of third-party candidates like Zema.
