Flávio Bolsonaro and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva are technically tied for support in Rio de Janeiro, according to a new Quaest poll [1].
The results highlight a deeply divided electorate in a key Brazilian state as the 2026 presidential election approaches. Because the lead falls within the margin of error, neither candidate holds a definitive advantage in the region.
The survey, commissioned by Globo, was conducted between Aug. 21 and Aug. 24 [5]. It polled 1,302 respondents across the state of Rio de Janeiro [4].
Data from the poll indicates that Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) holds 33% support [1], while Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) follows with 31% [1]. Other reports of the same survey data suggest a slightly lower range, placing Bolsonaro at 31% and Lula at 29% [2].
Regardless of the specific percentage used, the difference remains within the survey's margin of error of ±3 percentage points [6]. The poll carries a confidence level of 95% [7].
The state of Rio de Janeiro often serves as a critical battleground for the competing ideologies of the PL and PT parties. The current parity suggests that neither the incumbent president's national platform nor the senator's local influence has secured a dominant lead in the state.
“Flávio Bolsonaro and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva are technically tied for support in Rio de Janeiro”
The technical tie in Rio de Janeiro suggests that the 2026 presidential race remains highly volatile in one of Brazil's most populous states. With the margin of error absorbing the lead, the result indicates that small shifts in voter sentiment or the introduction of third-party candidates could easily swing the state's preference, making it a primary focus for campaign resources.
