President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads Flávio Bolsonaro in both first and second-round presidential simulations, according to new Quaest research [2].
These results indicate the current political momentum in Brazil as the country approaches the 2026 elections. The data suggests how effectively the current administration is maintaining support compared to the right-wing opposition.
Felipe Nunes, the CEO of the Quaest research institute, analyzed the findings released on July 15 [2]. In a simulated first-round vote, Lula holds 40% support [3], while Flávio Bolsonaro holds 28% [4].
In a simulated second-round runoff, the gap remains significant. Lula leads with 45% against 37% for Bolsonaro [5]. Nunes said that in this eventual second-round scenario, Lula's advantage is eight percentage points [7]. This lead grew by two percentage points over the previous month [8].
Nunes said that the research confirms Lula's leadership across all tested electoral scenarios, though he described the broader political landscape as more complex [1]. He said that a central indicator for understanding the current presidential race is the improvement in the evaluation of the Lula government [2].
This July analysis follows earlier data from January 2026 [1]. The trend shows a shift in the race, with some reports indicating a decline for Flávio Bolsonaro as Lula's position strengthens [4].
Nunes said the current numbers provide a baseline for the candidates before official campaigns begin. The transfer of voters from the elder Bolsonaro to his son remains a key factor in the right-wing strategy, but the data shows Lula maintaining a consistent lead [1].
“Lula leads with 45% against 37% for Bolsonaro”
The polling suggests that President Lula has successfully leveraged government approval to build a resilient lead over the Bolsonaro family's current representative. While the right wing has attempted to transfer voter loyalty to Flávio Bolsonaro, the 8-point gap in the second round indicates a ceiling for the opposition's current strategy. The volatility in the lead—specifically the 2-point increase for Lula—points to a shifting electorate that is reacting to the administration's performance as the 2026 cycle intensifies.
