President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holds a five-point lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in a new hypothetical second-round presidential poll [1].
The data suggests a highly competitive race for the 2026 election, highlighting a deeply polarized electorate as the campaign cycle progresses.
Released on Monday, June 1, 2026, the Real Time Big Data poll focused on voter intentions for a possible runoff scenario [1], [2]. According to the findings, Lula currently holds 45% of voter intentions [1]. Flávio Bolsonaro follows with 40% [1].
The poll also captured a significant portion of the electorate that remains uncommitted or dissatisfied with the two primary options. Specifically, eight percent of respondents chose blank or null votes [2]. Another seven percent of participants said they did not know their preference or preferred not to answer the question [2].
This national survey provides a snapshot of how the Brazilian public views a direct confrontation between the current administration and the Bolsonaro family legacy. While Lula maintains the lead, the margin remains narrow enough to be influenced by the undecided block of voters.
The poll was conducted nationwide to gauge how voters would behave in a final electoral stage [1]. Because the 2026 election cycle is ongoing, these figures represent current sentiment rather than a final prediction.
“Lula currently holds 45% of voter intentions”
The narrow gap between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro indicates that the 2026 election is likely to be a referendum on the two dominant political poles in Brazil. With 15% of the vote combined between undecided and null responses, this segment of the population could act as the deciding factor in a second-round runoff.
