Climate agencies forecast a very strong El Niño episode that could disrupt Brazil's 2026/27 crop planting season [1].
This weather pattern poses a significant risk to global food supplies because Brazil is a primary producer of soy, corn, coffee, and oranges. Disrupted rainfall during the critical planting window can lead to lower yields and increased market volatility.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), there is an 81% probability that the El Niño will reach a very strong intensity [1]. This represents a notable increase from a previous probability estimate of 63% [1].
The phenomenon is projected to officially develop in June 2026 [2]. Meteorologists said the event is expected to reach its peak intensity between September and November 2026 [3]. This timeline directly coincides with the start of planting for the upcoming harvest season [3].
Agricultural sectors across Brazil are on alert, with particular concern centered on major farming states such as Mato Grosso [1, 3]. The shift in weather patterns typically alters precipitation levels, which can either cause severe drought or unexpected flooding depending on the region.
Climate models from NOAA, the World Meteorological Organization (OMM), and Climatempo indicate the high probability of this event [1, 2]. While some reports describe the upcoming episode as strong, others categorize it as very strong [1, 4].
Farmers in affected regions are now evaluating mitigation strategies to protect the 2026/27 crop. The timing of the peak intensity—stretching from September to November—leaves little room for adjustment once the official development occurs in June [2, 3].
“There is an 81% probability that the El Niño will reach a very strong intensity.”
A 'very strong' El Niño event during the planting phase typically correlates with reduced rainfall in Southern Brazil and parts of the Midwest, while causing excessive rain in the North. Because Mato Grosso is a global hub for soy and corn, a failure in this specific planting window could trigger a spike in global commodity prices and disrupt international trade agreements for the 2026/27 cycle.
