Climate scientists and agricultural experts said a strong El Niño event could jeopardize Brazil's winter and summer crop production starting this month [1, 2].
This weather phenomenon alters global patterns by warming the Pacific Ocean, which can lead to severe droughts, floods, and heat waves [2, 5]. Such extremes directly threaten the stability of food production and could impact food prices across the country [1].
Data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) indicates a more than 60% chance of El Niño formation starting in May 2026 [2]. That probability rises to more than 90% for the second half of the year [2]. Some projections suggest the event could extend into early 2027 [2, 3].
The potential intensity of this cycle is particularly concerning. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) said this could be the most intense El Niño in 140 years [3].
Regional impacts are expected to vary across the Brazilian landscape. Meteorologists in Santa Catarina said the state may face a rainier winter and a summer marked by heat waves because the event is forming earlier this year [4]. Rio Grande do Sul also faces a heightened risk of extreme weather disruptions [3].
Agricultural sectors are monitoring these shifts closely as they prepare for volatile conditions. The combination of unseasonal rain and extreme heat can damage crop yields during critical growth stages, a risk that increases as the Pacific warming intensifies [1, 2].
“This could be the most intense El Niño in 140 years.”
A record-breaking El Niño event would place significant stress on Brazil's role as a global agricultural powerhouse. By disrupting the predictable rainfall and temperature patterns required for winter and summer crops, the phenomenon threatens not only domestic food security but also international commodity markets. The early onset of this cycle reduces the window for farmers to implement mitigation strategies, potentially leading to higher global food prices if production drops significantly.
