Southern Brazil is preparing for an intense El Niño that meteorologists say could bring extreme rainfall and heightened flood risks this year [1, 2].

The timing is critical because many communities in the states of Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina are still rebuilding after the record floods of 2024 [1, 2]. A second round of severe flooding could jeopardize recovery efforts and threaten populations that remain vulnerable to water-related disasters.

In May 2024, deadly flooding in the region killed at least 150 people [1]. The disaster displaced over 200,000 people, leaving a lasting impact on the city of Porto Alegre and surrounding areas [2]. Residents and local governments are now racing to implement precautions before the weather patterns shift.

Dr. Carlos Mendes, a meteorologist at the Brazilian National Institute of Meteorology (INMET), said the risk of extreme rain events is very high for southern Brazil. He said the El Niño the region is heading into looks to be one of the strongest in recent decades [1].

The potential for a repeat disaster has created significant anxiety for those who lost homes and livelihoods during the previous crisis. The convergence of a strong El Niño and existing environmental damage makes the region particularly susceptible to runoff and river overflows.

Kristy Kilburn said the region could see unprecedented rainfall this year. She said the situation is a double whammy for communities still recovering from the 2024 floods [2].

Local authorities are monitoring water levels and weather patterns closely as the region enters this high-risk period. The focus remains on whether current infrastructure improvements are sufficient to withstand the projected intensity of the upcoming rains [1, 2].

“"The El Niño we are heading into looks to be one of the strongest in recent decades."”

The intersection of a high-intensity El Niño event and a region in a state of active recovery creates a compounding disaster risk. Because the 2024 floods caused massive displacement and death, the socio-economic resilience of southern Brazil is lowered, meaning even moderate rainfall could have a disproportionate impact on infrastructure and public safety.