A BTG/Nexus poll shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro virtually tied in a simulated second-round presidential vote.
The results suggest a highly polarized electorate as Brazil approaches the 2026 general election, indicating that neither candidate has secured a decisive lead.
Fieldwork for the survey was conducted from June 26 to 28 [2]. The poll sampled 2,009 respondents [1] and carries a margin of error of ±2 percentage points [1].
In a simulated first-round scenario, Lula holds 42% of the voting intention, while Flávio Bolsonaro holds 34% [4]. However, the gap narrows significantly in the second-round simulation. According to some data, Lula leads with 47% compared to 44% for Bolsonaro [5]. Other reports of the same survey place Bolsonaro at 43% [8].
These figures represent a technical tie given the margin of error. The disparity in results is further highlighted by regional data. A version of the poll restricted to São Paulo shows Flávio Bolsonaro leading with 48.1% against Lula's 40.3% [9].
While some reports suggest Lula maintains a general advantage [2], the São Paulo data indicates a stronger base of support for Bolsonaro in Brazil's most populous state. The variation between the nationwide results and the regional data underscores the geographic divide in voter preference.
“Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro virtually tied in a simulated second-round presidential vote”
The proximity of the candidates in a second-round simulation suggests that the 2026 election will likely be decided by a small margin of undecided voters. The contrast between the nationwide tie and Bolsonaro's lead in São Paulo indicates that regional strongholds will play a critical role in the candidates' strategies to secure a majority.
