President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) holds a lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) in a new Datafolha poll released Friday.
The results indicate the current trajectory of the 2026 presidential race as Brazil prepares for a potential high-stakes runoff between the two candidates.
In a hypothetical second-round matchup, Lula holds 48% of voting intentions [1], while Flávio Bolsonaro holds 43% [2]. This represents a slight increase for the president, who held 47% in a previous second-round poll conducted in June [3].
The polling also provides a snapshot of the first-round landscape. According to the data, Lula maintains a 40% voting intention [4] for the first round. Flávio Bolsonaro follows with 32% [5].
The gap between the two candidates suggests a competitive race, though the president maintains a consistent lead across both scenarios. The Datafolha survey was conducted nationwide to gauge the current mood of the Brazilian electorate ahead of the upcoming elections.
Because the poll measures a potential runoff, it assumes only two candidates remain in the final stage of the election process. The shift from June to July shows a marginal gain for the incumbent president as the campaign season progresses.
“Lula holds 48% of voting intentions [1], while Flávio Bolsonaro holds 43% [2].”
The polling suggests that while the Bolsonaro name retains significant influence through Flávio Bolsonaro, President Lula has managed to consolidate a lead. The narrow margin in the second-round projection indicates that the election will likely be decided by a small percentage of undecided voters or a shift in regional coalitions.
