Brazil imported 22.4 million tonnes of fertilizer between January and July this year [1].
This trend is significant because rising input costs for farmers can lead to reduced crop yields or higher retail prices for staples. With Brazil serving as a global agricultural powerhouse, these cost pressures create a direct risk of food-price inflation for domestic consumers.
Import volumes for the period were 7.4% lower than during the same months in 2025 [2]. Despite the drop in the amount of fertilizer arriving at ports, the total spending on these imports rose by 7.3% to U.S.$8.8 billion [3].
The divergence between volume and spending indicates a sharp increase in the cost of materials. The average price per tonne of imported fertilizer in June 2026 was 26% higher than in June 2025 [4].
Agricultural producers are facing a combination of higher global prices and transport bottlenecks. These factors increase the cost of production for essential crops, including rice, coffee, wheat, and corn. Experts said these constraints may reduce the amount of fertilizer farmers apply to their fields, potentially impacting the 2027 production cycle.
There is currently a discrepancy regarding the immediate impact on consumers. Some reports said these rising costs will inevitably push food inflation back onto the radar. However, other data indicates that the food component of the consumer price index showed a modest rise of only 0.47% in June, suggesting that the intensity of food inflation has decreased recently.
“Import volumes for the period were 7.4% lower than during the same months in 2025”
The disconnect between falling import volumes and rising expenditures reveals a vulnerability in Brazil's agricultural supply chain. While current consumer price indices show stability, the lagged effect of higher fertilizer costs typically manifests in the following harvest cycles. If farmers cannot absorb these costs or find cheaper alternatives, the resulting production dips or price hikes could destabilize food security and inflation targets in 2027.
