A new poll released Wednesday shows Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) technically tied in a hypothetical presidential runoff [1].
The results highlight a deeply polarized electorate as Brazil approaches the 2026 presidential election, suggesting that neither candidate has secured a definitive lead in a head-to-head matchup.
According to the Instituto Gerp poll, Bolsonaro holds 42% of voter intentions while Lula holds 40% [1]. The survey further indicates that 15% of respondents would not vote for either candidate, and three percent did not know how to answer [1].
Other data from the Meio/Idea poll also reports a technical tie, placing Bolsonaro at 45.3% [2]. However, regional data suggests different trends; a Reuters fact-check poll restricted to São Paulo showed Bolsonaro leading with 48.1% compared to 40.3% for Lula [3].
Contradictory results appear in other national surveys. A Quaest poll placed Lula in the lead with 44% against Bolsonaro's 38% [4]. Similarly, a Terra poll showed Lula holding 45% of intentions while Bolsonaro held 40% [5].
These variations across different polling firms underscore the volatility of voter sentiment. While some surveys suggest a narrow lead for the incumbent, others indicate the race remains a dead heat or slightly favors the challenger.
“Flávio Bolsonaro holds 42% of voter intentions while Lula holds 40%”
The discrepancy between the Gerp, Quaest, and Terra polls suggests that the 2026 election is currently too close to call. The fact that multiple polls report a technical tie or narrow margins indicates that a small shift in undecided voters or the 15% of voters rejecting both candidates could determine the eventual winner of the runoff.
