A Genial/Quaest survey released Monday shows 55% of Brazilian respondents believe President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will be re-elected in 2026 [1].
These results indicate a shift in public perception regarding the incumbent's viability and the strength of the right-wing opposition as the election cycle progresses.
According to the poll, 25% of respondents believe Senator Flávio Bolsonaro will win the presidency [1]. The data reflects a significant increase for the president compared to an April round of the same poll, which showed 49% expecting a Lula victory and 32% for Flávio [4].
The survey fieldwork was conducted between July 10 and 13, 2026 [3]. The findings suggest a decline in support for the senator among certain demographics. Among non-Bolsonaro right-wing voters, support for Flávio fell from 67% to 46%, while support for Lula rose from 19% to 31% [5].
While the expectation of victory is high for the president, actual voting intentions show a tighter race. In a separate Genial/Quaest voting-intention measure, Lula held 40% support compared to 28% for Flávio [6].
This discrepancy between who voters think will win and who they intend to vote for is a common feature of political polling. The current trend shows the president consolidating a lead in perceived momentum, a factor that often influences undecided voters in the final stages of a campaign.
“55% of Brazilian respondents believe President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will be re-elected in 2026”
The gap between 'expected winner' and 'voting intention' suggests that while Lula maintains a strong image of inevitability, a significant portion of the electorate remains undecided or hesitant. The erosion of support for Flávio Bolsonaro among the non-Bolsonaro right indicates a potential fracturing of the conservative coalition, which could either pave the way for a Lula victory or open a door for a third-party candidate.
